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(01-06) 12:59 PST SAN FRANCISCO – There was no Steve Jobs or game-changing gadget at Macworld’s keynote presentation Tuesday, but Apple marketing chief Philip Schiller kept things lively by introducing eye-catching software updates and a supercharged, sleek MacBook Pro.

Schiller, who handles worldwide product marketing and was a last-minute stand-in for Jobs, capped off the Cupertino tech giant’s final year of participation in the expo, which runs through Friday at Moscone Center in San Francisco.

With Apple exiting the Macworld stage and Jobs being treated for a hormonal imbalance, Schiller offered announcements devoid of huge surprises. Rumors of an Apple netbook or large iPod Touch weren’t realized, but Schiller seemed to have a good time talking up the Mac platform and updates to the Apple family.

“I’m so personally excited to be the one delivering Macworld 2009 to you. I’d like to thank everybody for showing up,” he said.

The presentation included updates to the iLife and iWork software suites, a new 17-inch MacBook Pro with an 8-hour battery and a new digital rights management-free iTunes library with tiered pricing.

Starting at $2,799 and available in late January, the new MacBook Pro features Apple’s unibody aluminum enclosure, which other models received this past summer. But the big news was the battery life for the machine, which has a 40-percent larger battery capable of up to eight hours of continuous use.

Apple engineers worked with advanced chemistry, monitoring technology and power distribution to develop a battery able to last over 1,000 charges, a lifespan that is three times the industry standard, Schiller said. The laptop is a svelte .98 inches thick and 6.6 pounds; offers Intel Core 2 Duo processors up to 2.93 GHz, up to 8 GB of RAM, both discrete and integrated graphic chips from Nvidia, 320 GB of hard drive space, and an LED backlit display that has 1920 x 1200 resolution with 78 percent more pixels than its 15-inch sibling.

Schiller showed off new versions of iLife ‘09 and iWork ‘09. The iLife software includes a new iPhoto program with face detection capability that allows users to organize their picture library by – you guessed it – faces. Users also can organize photos by location using geo-tagged pictures. And iPhoto includes a new slide show feature with upgraded effects that can be synced to an iPhone or iPod Touch.

IMovie, which got a major makeover last year, adds more granular touch and powerful features, addressing one complaint of the updated iMovie. Video editors can apply new effects, sync audio better and smooth out jumpy footage using a new video stabilization feature.

GarageBand was upgraded with Learn to Play, an interactive musical tutorial for guitar and keyboard students. The software comes bundled with nine lessons for each instrument. To learn from big names such as Norah Jones and Sting, users can pay $5 for their instruction on one song.

IWork ‘09 features updates to its document, spreadsheet and presentation software, giving programs with more effects, themes and now the ability to share documents online through iWork.com. IWork.com, which is free during the testing period, allows people in many locations to collaborate on shared documents, which can be pulled up from any Web browser.

ITunes is finally getting a full slate of digital rights protection-free music that will come in a higher-quality 256 kbps AAC encoding format. About 8 million songs will be available immediately, and by the end of the quarter the remaining 2 million songs also will be available without digital rights management protections.

Also, Apple is now offering music at three price points: 69 cents, the traditional 99 cents and $1.29. Most albums will still sell for $9.99. The move satisfies one of the longer-running complaints of the music labels, which have wanted more flexibility in pricing in the iTunes Music Store. Users can upgrade their existing library of songs to DRM-free iTunes Plus for 30 cents a track or 30 percent of an album price.

And iPhone users will be able to download songs from the iTunes Music Store over AT&T’s 3G cellular network instead of waiting to access Wi-Fi.

Analysts said the keynote presentation was a notch below previous ones, which Jobs used to introduce products like the iPhone and the MacBook Air.

Tim Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies, said that Apple this year opted to tout its overall marketing message instead of introducing lots of new hardware.

“The emphasis is more on the products and the value of the software and the Mac,” he said. “The platform is growing, and the keynote is a way for Apple to show the strides it’s made in the industry.”

Mike McGuire, a Gartner Research analyst, said Apple has outgrown Macworld and is probably happy to have more flexibility to announce products outside of the expo’s schedule. Indeed, Schiller said that the Apple Stores attract 3.4 million people a week or “a hundred Macworlds a week.”

“Apple is still able to get (analysts and media) out to their stand-alone product announcements, so there is no longer a need for one fixed date on the calendar,” McGuire said.

With Apple’s departure and the decline of tech trade shows in general, the event’s future is in doubt. Bajarin said there might now be an opportunity to retool the event to allow more vendors to shine.

“Apple had a strong say on who could be on the floor at Macworld,” he said. “Apple not being there will have a big impact, but it could be an opportunity for other vendors to step up and use this show as a showcase.”
Source

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Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu has been checking with his contacts in Apple’s (AAPL) supply and distribution channels and reports that demand for the iPhone is “fairly healthy” in the U.S., Europe and, with the exception of Japan, most of Asia Pacific. He’s anticipating sales of 6 million units for the December quarter (Apple’s fiscal 2009 Q1), down from 6.9 million in Q4 but in line with the Street’s expectations of between 5 and 7 million.

But that significantly understates actual demand for the iPhone, Wu says, because it doesn’t include the wild card in this holiday season’s iPhone sales: the iPhone gift card.

“We think there is strong reception of AAPL’s new iPhone 3G Gift Card program,” Wu wrote in a report to clients Wednesday, “where the process of giving the iPhone as a gift is greatly simplified without the need for activation and personal information. … We estimate several hundred thousand to one million units could be impacted.”

The good news about these gift cards is that Apple gets to collect the revenue up front, which improves cash flow. The bad news for Apple’s Q1 earnings is that it can’t recognize the sale of an iPhone until the customer activates it. “The risk here is that the customer will likely activate post-Christmas,” writes Wu. “Therefore revenue and units won’t likely be recognized until the March quarter.”

In a separate note issued Tuesday, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster took a stab at estimating how many iPhones Wal-Mart (WMT) is likely to sell when it, as reported, begins carrying the devices three days after Christmas. Bottom line: Apple could sell as many iPhones through Wal-Mart in 2009 as it sells through its own Apple Stores. Munster’s math:

“Our analysis begins with a simple count of 3,500 U.S. Walmart stores and 208 U.S. Apple retail stores. We are modeling for Apple to sell 45m iPhones in CY09; we assume that 30% (13.5m) are sold in the U.S., and one third of U.S. iPhones (4.5m) are sold at Apple retail stores. In other words, we believe the average Apple store will sell about 22k iPhones in CY09. In order for all 3,500 U.S. Walmart stores to sell as many iPhones as the Apple retail channel (4.5m), each store would need to sell 1,284 iPhones in CY09, or 6% of the total annual volume of each Apple retail store. We believe a Walmart store would likely sell a small fraction of the units that an Apple store would, but we also believe that 6% on a unit-basis is achievable.”

UPDATE: Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty, an analyst with a dismal record of predicting iPhone sales (see here), cut her Q1 estimate Wednesday to 4 million iPhones, down from 4.5 million (link). Her sales estimate for calendar 2009 of 14 million iPhones represents the bearish low end among Apple analysts. Munster’s 45 million units is the bullish high.
Source

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